A poll conducted by Trinity News indicates that Leah Keogh is set to win a decisive victory in the election for President of Trinity College Dublin Students’ Union (TCDSU). The poll, which used a representative sample of 1,005 Trinity students, was carried out between Tuesday March 2 and Saturday March 6. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.0%.
If poll results from the other races are borne out in the election, TCDSU is on track to potentially have a six-woman sabbatical officer team for the 2021/22 academic year in a first for the union.
In the race for President, incumbent Welfare and Equality Officer Leah Keogh received 69.6% of the first preferences, significantly more than the half-plus-one needed to win on the first count. Ben Cummins came second with 24.6% of the votes, with Luke MacQuillan receiving 4.4% and re-open nominations (RON) on 1.4%.
Fewer than a quarter of respondents said they remained undecided on the President contest, too few to overcome Keogh’s lead. Nonetheless, campaigns in all races will work hard to sway decided and undecided voters in the final days of the election period, so the candidates’ ultimate performance may still differ from their polling.
In the Education contest, Bev Genockey leads with 55.6% of the first preferences. Dan O’Reilly received 38.3%, and RON 6.1%. However, almost half of those polled said that they remained undecided in this category so while Genockey’s lead is significant and she is favoured to win, the race is far from decided.
Welfare and Equality
In the Welfare and Equality election, Sierra Mueller-Owens leads with 55.8% of the first preferences. Dylan Krug polled at 38.9% and RON at 5.3%. Again, many of those surveyed had yet to make up their minds, with more than 54% describing themselves as undecided. Much like in the Education race, Mueller-Owens has a strong lead but the contest remains very competitive.
Communications and Marketing
Unopposed Communications and Marketing candidate Aoife Cronin received 91.5% of the first preference votes, with RON polling at just 8.5%. While almost half of voters said they remained undecided, Cronin’s very comfortable lead suggests she has little to worry about when votes are counted on Thursday evening.
In the race for Ents Officer, Antonia Brady is polling at 61.2%, Greg Arrowsmith at 37.3%, and RON at 1.5%. Just over a quarter of voters said they were still undecided, so while Brady’s victory is by no means guaranteed, Arrowsmith’s campaign faces a steep uphill battle to close the gap in the final days of the election period.
University Times Editor
In the University Times Editor election, incumbent Deputy Editor Emer Moreau leads with 87.1% of the first preferences. Peter Caddle is polling at 9.2% and RON at 3.7%. Much like the President race, only just over a quarter of voters said they were still undecided, far too few to overcome the significant gap between the candidates. Despite a controversial and contentious campaign period, Moreau seems all but certain to be elected.
Surveyed students were given a sample ballot for each race. Quoted statistics for candidates’ performance do not include those who indicated they were undecided or that they didn’t intend to vote. Levels of support are based on first preferences.
Full coverage and breakdown of the poll results will be available on the Trinity News website today and tomorrow and in the latest issue of Trinity News, available on Tuesday March 9.