The Trinity News election poll conducted on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of last week has predicted wins for Lynn Ruane, Muireann Montague, Katie Cogan and Aifric Ní Chríodáin in this year’s contested races. Uncontested candidates Molly Kenny and Edmund Heaphy also look certain to be elected on Thursday. The poll of 429 students was carried out on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of last week in the Arts Block, the Hamilton, D’Olier Street, St. James’s Hospital, the JCR Café and the GMB.
Lynn Ruane looks set to be elected the next president of the SU, with our poll placing her well ahead of her closest opponent, with 44.6% of respondents indicating they would give the PPES student their first preference vote. Her nearest opponent, Conor O’Meara, the former JCR president, placed second, with 31.5% of respondents saying they would vote for the Galway native. Gabriel Adewusi is set to take third position with 12.5% of the vote, according to our figures, followed by Nessan Harper who’s set to garner 9.4% of the vote. 2% of respondents indicated that they will vote to re-open nominations (RON).
Our poll also indicated that a large number of students had yet to make their minds up on who the next president should be, with 26.6% unsure who to vote for. With undecideds included, the so-called “core figures” reveal that 32.1% of Trinity undergraduates were set to vote for Ruane, 23.9% for O’Meara, 9.0% for Adewusi, 6.8% for Harper and 1.6% to re-open the race.
When broken down by faculty, our poll reveals that Ruane polls particularly strongly among students from the arts, humanities and social science departments, where she takes 41.5% of the vote against 23.3% for O’Meara. O’Meara by contrast performs best amongst health science students, where he takes 42.9% of the vote against Ruane’s 14.3%. He also outpolls her among students studying in the engineering, mathematics and science (EMS) faculty, garnering 20.2% of support against 14.3% for Ruane. The Hamilton seems to be a particular stronghold for Adewusi, who came in second in our poll there with 16%.
Responses also varied sharply according to the age of the student, with younger years favouring O’Meara and Ruane polling stronger among sophister students. Ruane took 40.3% of the senior sophister vote, 36.% for junior sophisters, 31.7% for senior freshmen and 23.9% of junior freshmen. By contrast, O’Meara receives the first preference of 20% of final year students, 24% of third years. 25.8% of second years and 24.6% of first years.
Unsurprisingly, the uncontested candidate for education, Molly Kenny is set to win by a landslide. Although 34.1% of students have yet make their mind up, of the remaining 65.9% who have, a clear 90% intend to cast a ballot in favour of the junior sophister engineering student. She has picked up particularly strong support amongst her fellow third year students, winning the support of just over seven in 10, 72.1%, of third year undergraduates. Her support is weakest among first years, of whom only 46.3% have committed to voting for her, while 51.5% remain undecided.
Welfare and Equality
The fiercely contested fight to be Trinity’s next welfare officer looks set to go down to the wire. Chemistry student Muireann Montague remains marginally ahead amongst committed voters with 32% of recorded first preferences. Her closest opponent, history student Conor Clancy is polling only slightly behind her with 31%. In third place, Liam Mulligan is set to gain 18%, followed by Aoife O’Brien on 11% and Louise O’Toole on 6% with only 1% opting for RON. Nearly a quarter of students, 24.8% remain undecided with the core vote figures for each candidate as follows: Montague at 23.9%, Clancy at 23.9, Mulligan at 13.3% O’Brien at 8.4% and O’Toole at 5.0%.
Montague leads Clancy by 31.6% to 29.6% among committed Hamilton students and the two candidates are tied at 37% amongst arts block students. Clancy, however, maintains an edge over Montague among health science students, 44% of whom intended to opt for the Limerick native against 27% who intend to opt for Montague.
Clancy also polls ahead of his rival among final year students: 21% of committed senior sophisters intend to vote for him, against 15% for Montague. Montague edges him out amongst third years, however, garnering 27% of their support, against 21% for Clancy. Clancy supporters slightly outnumber Muireann supporters in second year, by 36% to 34%. However, Montague enjoys substantial from first year voters, 45% back her campaign , against 26% who opted for Clancy.
The sole candidate to be next year’s editor of the University Times, Edmund Heaphy, seems certain to be elected on Thursday. Although 34% of students have yet to make a final decision, our poll predicts that only 11% will opt to re-open nominations and 55% will vote to elect the current deputy editor of the UT to be the paper’s editor. Heaphy received majority support from respondents in each year group: 56% of first years, 54% of second years, 58% of third years and 55% of fourth years intend to vote for him.
Across the various faculties, his support is strongest among arts block students, where 58% of students have committed to voting for him. 50% of Hamilton students also intend to give him their first preference. By contrast, only 43% of health science students said they would vote for him.
Communications and Marketing
Aifric Ní Chríodáin looks set to win the race to be the SU’s first communications and marketing officer, taking 42.9% of the vote in our poll, against 28.9% for her opponent, Jemma O’Leary. Slightly less than 1% of students indicated they would vote to re-open nominations and 27% said they were yet to make up their minds. When undecideds are excluded, Ní Chríodáin emerges with a near three to two margin over O’Leary, taking 59% of the vote against O’Leary’s 40%, with 1% for RON.
Ní Chríodáin tops the poll in each faculty: garnering the support of 55.7% of committed arts block voters, against 41.6% for O’Leary. Among health science students, Ní Chríodáin obtains the support of 70.5% those who’ve made up their minds, against 28.5% for O’Leary. Among EMS students she furthermore leads by 62.9% to 36.1%.
Ní Chríodáin also takes a clear lead in each year: winning 54.5% of fresher support against 45.5% for O’Leary, in second year she takes 67.9% against O’Leary’s 32%, among third years she takes 56.6% against O’Leary’s 43.4% and among final year students she takes 60.7% against 39.3% for opponent.
Katie Cogan currently leads the three-way race for Ents officer, taking 36.6% of the vote, after undecideds are excluded, with her nearest challenger, Conor Parle, taking 31.4% of students’ declared support. Not far behind him, with 30.2% of the vote, is David Gray. Behind him polls RON, with 1.89% support. Over a quarter of students, 26%, remain undecided and the core voting figures for each candidate are as follows: Cogan at 27.1%, Parle at 23.3% and Gray at 22.3%.
Cogan tops the poll among both arts and EMS students, taking 35.3% of arts block voters’ first preferences against 31.8% of students who opted for Gray and 30% who indicated they would support Parle. In the Hamilton, Cogan was the choice of 38% of voters, with Parle close behind her 35.8% and Gray trailing on 17.3%. By contrast, among health science students Gray takes 57.2%, with Cogan in second place on 28.5% and Parle trailing on 14.3%.
Among first year students, Gray polls as the clear favourite, with 44.4% support. By contrast, overall favourite Cogan takes only 22.2% with Parle on 32.4%. Among second years each candidate polls a third of the vote each and among third years Cogan leads the race, with 57.7% of the vote. In second place is Parle with 29.%, with Gray in third place on 20.5%. For final year students, 39.4% intend to support Cogan, 30% Parle and 24% Gray.
Pollsters: Catherine Healy, James Wilson, D. Joyce Ahearne, Andrew O’Donovan, Dee Courtney, Clare Droney, Robyn Page-Cowman, Matthew Nuding, Claire O’Nuallain, Conor O’Donovan.