When this year’s Central Applications Office (CAO) offers were released at 2pm on Wednesday, August 28, the debate about random selection in Ireland’s higher education system resurfaced. But what exactly is random selection, and does it truly belong in a fair college admissions system?
The CAO system is responsible for undergraduate applications in Ireland, with admission to university courses based largely on points from the Leaving Certificate examinations. Each course has a fixed number of places, which determines the required points. For example, if a course has 50 places and there are 55 applicants the minimum points requirement is determined by the score of the 50th best applicant; if the 50th applicant achieved 520 points, then 520 becomes the minimum points needed to secure a place in that course. However, when multiple students achieve this score — say the 50th and 51st applicants — the CAO employs a random selection process. This means that even students who meet the points requirement might not secure a place if they are not selected in the random draw.
Having recently gone through the CAO process myself, the thought of my potentially not having received a place in my course due to a lottery is unsettling. This concern has only grown in recent years; although the process of random selection has been in place in Ireland for many years, it gained more prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic when inflated grades led to more students achieving the maximum 625 points. In 2019, just 200 students accomplished this; now in 2024, that number has soared to around 1,000. This inflation has led to higher points requirements for many courses.
“This surge in applications has led to increased competition for places, particularly in high-demand courses”
In recent years, Trinity has seen a record number of applications, with nearly 11,000 students listing it as their first preference in 2024. This surge in applications has led to increased competition for places, particularly in high-demand courses. Six courses in Trinity were subject to random selection in 2024, with Dental Science even applying this method to students who achieved the maximum 625 points. Still, this was an improvement from 2021, when twenty-four courses used random selection, with three — Law and Political Science, Dental Science, and Management Science and Information Systems Studies — involving random selection at the 625-point level. This decline is certainly positive; nonetheless, it demonstrates that random selection remains a tool for managing demand.
The growing competitiveness of the CAO process is also tied to broader issues of university funding. With a €307 million shortfall in core funding from the government, Irish universities are increasingly dependent on international student fees to stay afloat. Since international students pay significantly higher fees, institutions may prioritise them over CAO applicants, reducing the number of spots available for Irish students. This financial strain, combined with the already limited number of places in high-demand courses, intensifies competition for Irish students. The reliance on international revenue streams not only reduces opportunities for local students but makes access to high-demand courses even more competitive and uncertain.
For students who have spent years working towards a place in their chosen degree, the prospect of their future being determined by a random draw can be disheartening. The emotional toll of this system is palpable, as highlighted by the recent story of Sarah Kenny as reported by the Irish Times. Sarah secured 625 points in her Leaving Cert this year, only to miss out on her course in UCD due to random selection. Her experience is a reminder of how personal and painful the CAO process can be. When you have put everything into your education, the idea that your future could be determined by a draw feels deeply unfair.
In a recent statement, Trinity Vice-Provost Orla Sheils described the process of random selection as “a cruel arbiter when students have worked so hard”. As someone who has recently navigated this system, I agree. The traditional model of entry into university courses has been based on merit, measured by exams like the Leaving Certificate. However, with increasing numbers of high-achieving students applying for limited spots, even those with the best possible results find themselves disappointed. Random selection seems to undermine the very essence of fairness by disregarding individual achievement.
Yet, I also recognise that random selection addresses a complex problem. With more CAO applicants than available places, some form of selection is inevitable. Traditional merit-based systems have their own flaws, often favouring those with access to better resources, thereby perpetuating inequality. Random selection can be seen as a way to equalise access.
A common solution offered to solve the issue of random selection in competitive courses is to simply increase the number of places available. While this approach may seem effective, it faces significant obstacles, especially regarding accommodation. Vice-Provost Orla Sheils also highlighted in her statement that Trinity is already grappling with a severe shortage of student housing, exacerbated by Dublin’s broader accommodation crisis. In fact, the Deloitte Property Index 2023 showed that Dublin’s rental market is the most expensive in Europe. Expanding student numbers without a corresponding increase in accommodation would only intensify these challenges.
Instead of short-term solutions such as immediately increasing places, it is obvious that significant investment is required to address the underlying issues. Prioritising investment in student accommodation is crucial to ensure that any expansion in college places is sustainable. This includes building new residences and making existing housing more affordable. Though these investments will require significant resources, they are investments we must be willing to make if we want to provide fair opportunities for all students.
Additionally, investing in vocational training can help alleviate some of the pressure on third-level institutions by offering alternative, equally valuable pathways. In recent decades, Ireland has seen a cultural shift that equates success with obtaining a university degree. In 1991, only 14% of the population aged 15 and over had a third-level qualification; by 2022, this figure had risen to 48%. However, this raises the question: is it truly necessary for nearly half of the population to pursue a university degree? Many industries are in desperate need of skilled workers, and yet vocational paths like apprenticeships often remain undervalued. With over seventy apprenticeship programs available in Ireland across competitive sectors such as engineering and healthcare, these routes offer viable alternatives to traditional university degrees. Investing in these routes could help balance demand, reduce pressure on university places, and decrease our reliance on random selection.
Ultimately, random selection is a symptom of deeper issues within our education system. Rather than accepting random selection as the new norm, we should use it as a catalyst for broader reform — reforms that include investing in facilities and reevaluating the role of third-level education. If we address these broader issues, random selection may no longer be necessary. But until then, it remains a stopgap in a CAO system struggling to meet the demands of modern Irish society. As someone who has gone through this process, I can only hope that future students will see a fairer system where their hard work truly pays off.
