A Trinity News’ snap poll indicates that 54% of voters in the presidential race intend to vote to re-open nominations (RON).
The poll was conducted over a 24-hour period from 4pm on Monday, February 24, to 4pm Tuesday, February 25, with a sample size of 453 voters.
With most respondents saying they were decided on how they would vote, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.7%. The poll broadly reflects demographic proportions in terms of year group, faculty, and Union involvement, consistent with last week’s poll. Seán Thim O’Leary comes in second with 25.6% of the vote, followed by Patrick Keegan at 11.3%, while Giovanni Li stands at 9%.
RON leads in all but one demographic captured by this snap poll, with over 50% support across these categories. The highest proportion of RON votes comes from senior sophister (fourth year) students, with 72.7% of that cohort indicating they would give RON their first preference. Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences students follow with 58% intending to vote RON, as do 57.8% of students who have previously held a position in TCDSU.
If these results were borne out, it would mark the first time in TCDSU history that a RON outcome is returned in a contested sabbatical officership election. The only RON result in recent memory occurred in the uncontested race for University Times editor in 2022.
In last week’s larger opinion poll, RON had 19.82% of the vote – a figure that was at the time the largest RON vote ever recorded in a contested race in Trinity News polling. After responses that came in before the launch of the RON campaign were excluded, Trinity News’ analysis showed that 30% of students who decided their preferences later in the week gave RON their first preference.
The surge in support for RON has come after the launch of a “RON on pres” campaign page on Instagram last Tuesday. At the time of writing, the page has amassed over 440 followers, surpassing any of the official campaign pages of the other candidates in the race.
This snap poll was conducted alongside the voting opening on Tuesday, February 25. At the close of voting, 1,320 students had cast their ballots across the six sabbatical races. At the time, 609 students had cast their vote in the arts block, 340 in the business building, 296 in the Hamilton Building, 64 in St James Hospital, and 11 in Trinity Hall.
