A poll conducted by Trinity News predicts victories for Aoife Ní Bhriain and Charles Hastings in the races for Oifigeach na Gaeilge and Editor of The University Times, respectively. Meanwhile, Seán Thim O’Leary currently leads the presidential race with 36.4% of decided voters giving them their first preference. Buster Whaley holds a narrow six point advantage in the Education race, whereas Channing Kehoe appears destined for a comfortable victory in the Communications & Marketing election. In the fiercely contested welfare & equality and Ents races, John Garvey and Yuv Garg lead with 39% and 35% of the votes, respectively.
The poll was conducted among a sample of 867 students between 18 and 21 February, with an estimated margin of error of plus or minus 4.7%. It gathered responses from a representative cross section of intended voters, and included voting likelihood and ranking data, offering an insightful look at the dynamics of the closely contested elections. In single seat races, a candidate must secure at least half of the votes, ensuring no combination of votes allows your opponents to overtake them.
President
In the presidential race, Seán Thim O’Leary leads with 36.4% of the vote, followed by Patrick Keegan at 26%. Giovanni Li stands at 17.7% among the decided voters in this category, behind the 19.8% who would prefer to re-open nominations (RON) in this race – the highest RON figure ever recorded by a Trinity News poll in a contested race.
The unusually high proportion of respondents in favour of RON follows the launch of an online campaign in the early hours of the second day of polling. Since the launch of the campaign’s Instagram page, the Trinity News poll has seen an increasing number of students deciding to give their highest preference to RON. Excluding responses collected before the campaign launch, our analysis shows that up to 30% of students deciding their preference later in the week opted for RON in this race. Although this statistic carries a higher margin of error of 6% due to the smaller sample size, it points to a possible momentum shift, especially considering 50% of likely voters remain undecided in the presidential race. Strikingly, senior sophister students and those who have held positions in the union, elected to vote to reopen nominations at 23.9% and 25.8% respectively throughout the whole polling period.
O’Leary leads with a decent majority amongst most demographic groups, with 42.3% support among those who would vote for a centre left party in a hypothetical Irish general election. Keegan is the most popular with students who would like the union to take part in more direct action and left wing voters, garnering 35.5% and 37.1% of the votes from each group, respectively. Li enjoys 47.6% of the health sciences vote, while being most preferred by students identifying with centre right or right wing parties.
Education
As the race with the least amount of decided voters this election cycle, the outcome of the Education race remains firmly unknown. Buster Whaley holds a small lead over Conchúr Ó Cathasaigh, with each candidate polling at 51% and 45.3% respectively, while 3.7% of voters would prefer to re-open nominations in this race.
Whaley has a 14 point edge over Ó Cathasaigh amongst Arts, Humanities and Social Science students, whereas Ó Cathasaigh has an 8 point lead amongst STEM students, a 27 point lead with Health Sciences students, and a 12 point lead with those who have held a position in TCDSU. A strong turnout in any of these respective demographics could swing the race in either candidate’s favour – as 50% of voters remain undecided.
Welfare
Alongside this year’s Ents race, the welfare & equality race is the most contested TCDSU election since 2018. John Garvey tops the poll at 39%, followed by Nina Crofts on 26%, Deirdre Leahy follows closely behind at 24.8%, and Bhagarvi Magadi is polling at 7%. A further 3.1% of voters opted to reopen nominations.
Crofts leads amongst junior fresh and senior fresh students with 40% and 36.23% support from these cohorts respectively. Leahy has the support of 41.5% of health science students, whereas Garvey leads in nearly every other polled demographic, securing 54.1% of the senior sophister vote and 40.7% of students who align with centre left parties. He is also the most transfer friendly candidate, attracting the most transfers from two out of his three competitors, as well as those who initially ranked RON first. Although this highly contested race will most definitely take a few counts to determine a victor, Garvey enters the final week of campaigning in the strongest position to become next year’s welfare & equality officer. That said, with 47% of voters still undecided, a robust showing by any of the candidates in the final week could shift the dynamics of this race.
Comms
Channing Kehoe is set to become the next communications & marketing officer of TCDSU, garnering 87.8% of the votes in the only uncontested race this year. As is typical of an uncontested election, the percentage of votes to re-open nominations is slightly higher at 12.2%.
Kehoe has assembled a strong backing across a wide range of demographics, with 91.7% of senior sophister and 90.7% of female voters backing her candidacy. The largest cohort of voters who are opting to re-open nominations are males, but even if 17.3% of this group ultimately vote as such, Kehoes path to victory will still be a very straightforward one.
Ents
In the joint-most contested election this year, Yuv Garg leads the race with 34.6% of respondents giving him their first preference. However, his advantage over Orla Norton is within the margin of error, with Norton polling at 30%. John O’Hara has the support of 21.7% of voters, while Finn Hallwood received 10% of first preferences. 3.6% of voters would prefer to re-open nominations.
Garg enjoys strong support across various demographics, particularly among multi faculty, health sciences, and students who would vote for a government party in an election. He is also the most preferred candidate among senior sophister students, securing 43.8% of their support. Norton enjoys 35.9% and 34.3% of the centre left and student union vote, respectively. O’Hara has the backing of 36.6% of junior fresh students, making him this year groups most favoured candidate.
On further analysis of the second and third preferences, it appears that Norton is the most transfer friendly candidate, securing between 40% and 52% of the available transfers from her competitors. With around 35% of voters still yet to decide who they are voting for in this close race, it is plausible that any of the leading candidates emerge victorious.
Gaeilge
In only the second ever election for the role of Oifigeach na Gaeilge sabbatical role, and the first contested one, Aoife Ní Bhriain holds a decisive 16 point lead over her competitor. Ní Bhriain is polling at 56.8%, while Niamh Leddy has secured 40.2% of the first preferences, with 3% of deciding respondents choosing to reopen nominations.
Leddy would need to convince two thirds of the undecided voters to flip the race in her favour. Ní Bhriain’s lead amongst certain demographics is the strongest seen in this year’s polling – she is on course to win 70% of senior fresh students and 63.9% of the vote from her peers in the STEM faculty. However, her lead amongst senior sophister students and those who have had a role in the student’s union are well within the margin of error – leaving a potential opening in the electorate for Leddy if she can encourage these highly engaged voting groups to give her their preference.
Editor
In what is shaping up to be an uneventful race for editor of the University Times, Charles Hastings leads with 61.4% of the vote, while Sajal Singh has secured 31.1%. 7.5% of the voters in this race would prefer to re-open nominations. Hastings has a particularly strong support base amongst students who would support centre right or right wing parties, male voters, and those who have held a position in the students union. Singh would need to convince nearly three quarters of the undecided votes in this category to support her if she is within a chance of securing the position.
