As the race for welfare and equality officer heats up, John Garvey has taken a commanding lead, securing 39% of first-preference votes, positioning him as the clear frontrunner.
With a strong lead over Nina Crofts (26.08%) and Deirdre Leahy (24.88%), Garvey appears well-positioned to win the election, provided his support holds through the later rounds of voting.
Meanwhile, Bhargavi Magadi (6.94%) and the call to Re-Open Nominations (RON) (3.11%) received marginal support, making it unlikely that either will play a decisive role in the outcome.
While this poll provides insight into voter preferences ahead of the election, the outcome remains uncertain as second-preference votes and campaign developments could still shift the race. However, Garvey’s strong polling numbers suggest that his campaign’s emphasis on accessibility and student support has resonated with the electorate. His manifesto highlights the need to break down barriers to welfare services through clear communication and streamlined processes.
At the media hustings, Garvey distinguished himself in discussions on student parents, demonstrating an in-depth familiarity with the issue by pointing out that the college’s midterm does not align with secondary school midterms. He outlined plans to advocate for more childminding spaces on campus and extended nursery hours,
Garvey’s popularity is particularly pronounced among senior students, with Senior Sophisters (4th years) giving him 53.85% of decided votes. As an SS student himself, he appears to have strong credibility with this demographic. This suggests that his policies and approach resonate with students who have spent more time navigating the complexities of college life and welfare services.
His ability to connect with this group may stem from his focus on practical, tangible reforms that directly address long-standing concerns within student welfare.
Additionally, he performed well among Science and Technology students (44.00%), who may have been drawn to his structured and results-driven approach to welfare reform, particularly regarding access to mental health services and streamlined administrative processes.
Centre-left voters, the largest ideological group, overwhelmingly backed Garvey (38.71%), reinforcing his broad appeal among students who favour moderate yet effective welfare policies.
Among Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences (AHSS) students, who comprised the majority of poll respondents, Garvey led with 36.00% support, indicating that his policies were well-received across a diverse range of academic disciplines.
He also held a strong lead among male voters (60.00%), while female voters (54.72% of the total electorate) also leaned towards him (31.18%).
This widespread support across multiple demographics and ideological backgrounds solidifies Garvey’s position as the frontrunner and suggests that his message of accessibility and efficiency in welfare services has resonated broadly across Trinity’s student body.
In contrast, Nina Crofts has secured a solid second-place position in the poll, with particular strength among Junior Fresh (1st-year) students (43.55%). Her campaign, which focuses on making welfare services more approachable and ensuring every student feels heard, likely appealed to younger voters still figuring out how to navigate college life.
Notably Crofts frequently references first-year students in her speeches, emphasizing their need for support as they transition into university life, which could have further consolidated her advantage within this group of voters.
Crofts also gained significant traction among left-aligned voters, securing 29.03% of decided votes, a strong showing within this group.
However, her support among other cohorts remains weaker, particularly among older students, where she trails behind Garvey, suggesting that her base may not be broad enough to mount a significant challenge to his lead.
Crofts faced repeated challenges regarding her proposal to make the opioid-reversal drug Narcan available to students, given current Irish legislation prohibiting its dispensing without a prescription.
While she also admitted to lacking specific statistics on opioid use in Trinity, she maintained that student drug use is increasing and that fentanyl-laced substances pose a growing risk.
Crofts further argued that if legislative barriers exist, efforts should be made to ensure College Health can issue prescriptions for Narcan.
Deirdre Leahy, currently polling in third place, built her campaign around improving welfare services for Health Sciences students—an approach that appears to have paid off within that faculty.
As a Health Sciences student herself, she has focused her policies on the unique challenges faced by students in the faculty and with this secured 44.00% of votes from Health Sciences students, far surpassing her overall polling numbers. However, her appeal outside of this niche demographic appears weaker.
While she remains competitive, her pathway to victory would require significantly expanding her base beyond Health Sciences. Notably, she performed slightly better among female voters (29.03%) than Crofts (26.92%).
Bhargavi Magadi’s campaign, which focused on making welfare services more accessible and straightforward, did not translate into widespread support, with just 9.68% of first-preference votes in the poll. While she received some backing from Junior Fresh students and those in multi-faculty courses, her numbers are too low to pose a serious challenge.
As the race for Welfare and Equality Officer heats up, John Garvey has taken a commanding lead, securing 39.00% of first-preference votes, positioning him as the clear frontrunner.
With a strong lead over Nina Crofts (26.08%) and Deirdre Leahy (24.88%), Garvey appears well-positioned to win the election, provided his support holds through the later rounds of voting.
Meanwhile, Bhargavi Magadi (6.94%) and the call to Re-Open Nominations (RON) (3.11%) received marginal support, making it unlikely that either will play a decisive role in the outcome.
While this poll provides insight into voter preferences ahead of the election, the outcome remains uncertain as second-preference votes and campaign developments could still shift the race.
Possible vote transfers show that Crofts gains notable support from Deirdre Leahy’s eliminated votes, securing 29 additional votes, with a strong concentration among left-aligned voters. After this transfer, she would hold 29.03% of decided votes, reinforcing her appeal within progressive circles.
However, her difficulty in attracting broader voter demographics, particularly senior students and male voters, limits her ability to challenge Garvey’s lead.
Meanwhile, Garvey picks up 48 additional votes, strengthening his already substantial advantage. His ability to draw transfers across different ideological and demographic lines further solidifies his frontrunner position, making it increasingly difficult for Crofts to bridge the gap.
However, if Crofts can further consolidate her support among left-leaning voters and younger students, she could gain ground.
Leahy, on the other hand, would need to expand her appeal beyond Health Sciences to have a realistic shot at making it past later rounds of counting.
As the campaign heads into its final Garvey maintains a strong lead, but both Crofts and Leahy have opportunities to capitalize on campaign missteps, policy debates, or changes in voter sentiment. Crofts, in particular, could benefit from increased engagement with upper-year students to build a more robust base beyond first-years. Leahy might consider broader welfare policy discussions beyond Health Sciences to remain competitive.
With Garvey’s numbers holding strong and Crofts and Leahy battling for second place, the Welfare race is shaping up to be a decisive contest—but for now, polling suggests that Garvey remains the candidate to beat.
