Ireland’s symbolic and official neutrality is at its most vulnerable position since the onset of the Second World War. Its decades-long position within the European Union is now intertwined with an American retreat from the defence of Ukraine, and European efforts to fill this vacuum. The government rhetoric on neutrality, particularly the proposed plan to abandon the Triple Lock, conveys the current crossroads Ireland finds itself at: should it cosy up to President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen — who has openly called for a European Defence Union to “re-arm Europe” — and noisy neighbours in Britain who are deliberating “boots on the ground”, or should the country remain steadfast in opposing military alliances? In the chaos of the current transatlantic climate, Ireland’s best and most moral option is to hold on to its neutrality for dear life.
“Abandoning the Triple Lock and giving in to the temptations of a prospective European rearmament is not the answer”
That is not to say Ireland should put its head in the sand and ignore the significance of contributing to Ukraine’s sustained sovereignty. Irish neutrality has always been a slightly prejudiced one. In World War Two, the government allowed Allied aircrafts to use its airspace and shared critical intelligence with Allied forces. Enda Kenny remarked in 2007 that “Ireland is not neutral; we are merely unaligned.” Ireland has, rightly so, provided Ukraine with political support and humanitarian aid since Russia’s invasion. While the Department of Foreign Affairs committed to “constructively abstain[ing]” from EU military funding in February 2022, it pledged non-military aid. As of September 2024, Ireland has provided non-lethal aid totalling around €380 m to Ukraine. It is vital that non-lethal aid continue to be sent to Ukraine, whose fight for its sovereignty is now facing its sternest test, but this must be done in a manner that does not jeopardize Ireland’s critical cornerstone of foreign policy: neutrality.
The threats to Irish neutrality are reflected in the internal conflict currently at hand. The government announced plans in early March to abandon the Triple Lock. Established in 2001, the Triple Lock requires the government, Dáil, and United Nations Security Council approval to deploy Irish troops on peacekeeping missions. As early as March 2023, Micheál Martin asserted that Ireland needed to “reflect” on its neutral status. While the Irish left remains staunch in its support for neutrality, the government is articulating dangerous rhetoric risking a slow decline away from Ireland’s non-aligned position. Without the Triple Lock, Ireland’s neutrality — with all its historical significance –- could be done away with by a simple majority vote, which the current government just about holds through their independent backing. This is a power the Europhilic centre-right government cannot be allowed to possess or weaponize.
The Irish rhetoric remains moderate, in comparison to the British bluster coming out of Westminster. Keir Starmer and his Labour government are seeking to address their crumbling support at home through macho foreign policy grandstanding. They are also perhaps hoping to re-engage with the EU through this bravado. Starmer has pledged £13.8 bn [€16.2 bn] on military spending, attempting to prop up his newly termed “coalition of the willing” with Britain, France, and Germany positioned to take the reins of a new European political order. British Defence Secretary John Healey has warned of the “untold damage” Britain’s nuclear deterrent could do, while Starmer has declared Russia will face “severe consequences” for any ceasefire breaches.
This aggressive talk is not simply a deflection from domestic polling misery, but a response to the chaos of US President Donald Trump’s threatened retreat from Europe’s defence. Patrick Murphy writes that “Trump has fast-forwarded the creation of an EU-led European army.” Von der Leyen has demanded the EU raise around €800 bn in militarisation funding. The US withdrawal has created an opportunity for Britain, France, and Germany to lead a new free world. It is a chance for influence that the likes of Starmer, Macron, von der Leyen, and Merz are all too eager to seize. European officials are reportedly working on a five to 10 year NATO replacement strategy, anticipating its potential collapse. They are set to present this to the US in advance of the NATO summit at The Hague in June. Ireland sits well within view of Britain, France, and Germany, making their neutrality more visible and inflammatory than it has been under the long-existent structures of NATO. If a new European alliance is in the frameworks, Ireland may well be asked to take a seat at the table. Should they refuse, the threat of economic sanctions remains plausible.
However, despite the chaos and vulnerability Europe is in over Trump’s retreat and his reprehensible blaming of Ukraine for Russian President Valdimir Putin’s aggression, the notion of a genuine alliance remains deeply hypothetical at this point. Starmer has assessed that “the world needs action … not empty words”, but beyond his incomprehensible cutting of welfare benefits at home, he is doing very little beyond talking. A new power structure requires certain essential guarantees: a genuine American retreat instead of shifting allegiance to Russia, the continued survival of Ukrainian sovereignty over the coming months, and most significantly of all, the survival of the European centre. The far-right parties Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Reform UK, and Rassemblement National all serve as a foil to current governments even engaging in costly alliance commitments. Their populist appeal — derisive of foreign aid –- will render the centrists currently in power cautious to commit. In this light, Ireland’s neutral status may not find concrete pressure being exerted on it from Europe for a while to come.
If and when this pressure does come, the Irish must remain neutral. Not only is the moral symbolism as essential as ever, the Europeans make for a chaotic prospective ally regardless. The left, led by voices such as Richard Boyd Barrett, have been right to criticise the government for allowing the US military to use Shannon Airport; around 220,000 American soldiers have passed through Shannon since Russia’s invasion. The slow decline of Irish neutrality has in many respects been a part of its existence since its onset, but abandoning the Triple Lock and engaging in European re-armament would be a catastrophic and irreversible step.
The advent of a new European military order offers Ireland an opportunity to reinforce neutrality, arresting the slow shift away from it. Should Europe come knocking at the door with a carrot and a stick, Ireland would do well not to open it.
