Seacht mhí ó shin, bhí an Chreimil agus a lucht tacaíochta an-shásta leo féin nuair a shocraigh siad ionsaí a dhéanamh ar an Úcráin. Laistigh de cúpla uair, scaoil Aerfhórsa na Rúise buamaí ar bhunáiteanna míleata agus ar bhonneagar tábhachtach fud fad na hÚcráine. Mháirseáil Arm na Rúise thar an teorainn sa tuaisceart ón Bhealarúis, sa deisceart ón Chrimé a bhfuil faoi fhorghabháil na Rúise ó 2014, agus san oirthear ón Rúis féin. Laistigh de chúpla lá, bhí cuid mhaith den Úcráin faoi chois na Rúise agus bhí Cív, an phríomhchathair, timpeallaithe ag Rúiseach. Bhí imní ar go leor daoine san Iarthar go dtiteadh an Úcráin as a chéile. Bhí tráchtairí polaitiúla ar theilifís státrialaithe sa Rúis an-mhuiníneach go mbeadh an bua acu gan mhoill.
Tá athrú mór tagtha ar an scéal ó shin, áfach. Theip ar na Rúisigh Cív a ghabháil. Chúlaigh siad ón tuaisceart. Is beag an dul chun cinn atá déanta acu san oirthear agus sa deisceart ach an oiread.
Déanta na fírinne, is cosúil go bhfuil cor cinniúnach an chogaidh feicthe againn le déanaí, i bhfabhar na n-Úcránach.
Ar an 6ú lá de mhí Mheán Fómhair, rinne Arm na hÚcráine ionsaí mór ar Arm na Rúise sa réigiún Kharkiv. Is dóigh gur tháinig an t-ionsaí seo aniar aduaidh ar na Rúisigh, toisc gur fhógair Ceannasaíocht na hÚcráine go raibh siad ag ullmhú ionsaithe ollmhóir sa deisceart chun Kherson a athghabháil.
Tubaiste amach is amach ab ea an t-ionsaí seo sa réigiún Kharkiv do na Rúisigh. Ní raibh na bolscairí Rúiseacha ar theilifís státrialaithe fiú in ann cuma dhearfach a chur ar an scéal.
Tóg mar shampla, clár polaitiúil a craoladh ar NTV díreach sular priontáladh an leagan deireanach den University Times. Bhí go leor de na tráchtairí ag éirí mífhoighneach leis an chogadh. Ach tá sé tábhachtach a luadh fosta, nár lochtaigh duine ar bith díobh an tUachtarán Putin go díreach, ach a chomhairleoirí míleata.
“Chuir na daoine seo cluain orainn uilig”, ar Boris Nadeszdhin, Iarfheisire sa Duma, Parlaimint na Rúise. Lean sé ar aghaidh: “Ní féidir linn na hÚcránaigh a shárú anois. Tá arm láidir ag troid in aghaidh Arm na Rúise … caithfidh muid an tír a shlógadh nó muid féin a tharraingt amach as an Úcráin”.
“Cad é an mhoill atá orainn? … Ar chreid duine ar bith sé mhí ó shin go mbeadh muid san áit ina bhfuil muid anois? Go bhfuil sé orainn Balakliya a fhágáil agus na hÚcránaigh inár ndiaidh? Ba chóir dár bhfaisnéis mhíleata é seo a thuar.” ar Viktor Olevich, saineolaí beartais.
B’éigean don Fheisire Duma throdaigh Alexander Kazakov fiú admháil gur “buille síceolaíochta troime” é an cailleadh sa réigiún Kharkiv, ach dúirt sé fosta gur chóir don Arm Rúiseach leanúint ar aghaidh leis an chogadh.
D’fhreagair Alexei Timofeev, tráchtaire polaitiúil, go raibh an anailís “saineolaithe” áirithe ag tús an chogaidh “millteanach mícheart”, agus nach raibh cúis ar bith le héisteacht leo. “Insíodh nach mbeadh rud ar bith in Odesa níos contúirtí dár saighdiúirí ná na barróga móra ó na daoine áitiúla … Tar éis an 24ú de mhí Feabhra, thuig muid uilig nach raibh sé sin ceart ar chor ar bith. Níl daoine in Odesa ag iarraidh barróg a thabhairt do shaighdiúirí Rúiseacha … Cad chuige a gcaithfidh mé éisteacht leis an tuairm gur chóir dúinn coinneáil leis go deireadh anois?”
In ainneoin an phlé seo, is fada uainn deireadh an chogaidh go fóill. Bhuamáil Arm na Rúise na hÚcránaigh ar feadh an fhronta an tseachtain i ndiaidh sin. Chomh maith leis sin, ar an 21ú lá de mhí Mheán Fómhair, d’fhógair Putin go gcuirfeadh sé breacghairm shlógaidh i bhfeidhm, rud a chuirfidh 300,000 Rúiseach chun na hÚcráine. San óráid chéanna, rinne Uachtarán na Rúise bagairt ar an Úcráin go raibh sé réidh “gach rud” atá ar fáil don Arm Rúiseach a úsáid más gá, buamaí núicléacha ina measc.
Tá an tIarthar ag tabhairt airde don bhagairt seo. Ar an Déardaoin seo caite, dúirt Uachtaráin na Stáit Aontaithe, Joe Biden, go bhfuil an scéal san Úcráin níos dainséaraí ná rud ar bith eile ón Ghéarchéim Diúracán i gCúba in 1962 agus go bhfuil an domhan i mbaol.
Tá tuairiscí ann, áfach, go bhfuil go leor Rúiseach iontach míshásta le bhreacghairm shlógaidh Putin. Tá na mílte ag iarraidh éalú ón Rúis faoi láthair, ag ciúáil le dul isteach sa tSeoirsia, sa Mhongóil, sa Chasacstáin agus roinnt tíortha eile. Tá gach eitilt ag fágáil na Rúise díolta amach chomh maith, agus gach eitilt ag dul go dtí an Rúis beagnach folamh. Tá daoine ag déanamh agóide in aghaidh an tslógaidh fosta, ní amháin sna cathracha móra ar nós Moscó agus Cathrach Pheadair, ach i gceantracha tuaithe fosta, ar nós na Dagastáine.
Chomh maith leis sin, tá tuairiscí ann go bhfuil lagmhisneach ar roinnt de na saighdiúirí nua seo, toisc go bhfuil na dálaí maireachtála go hainnis agus go bhfuil easpa trealaimh agus armra mhaith ann.
Caillfidh an tUachtarán Putin tacaíocht ar bith atá fágtha ag an phobal agus an Arm dó sula bhfaigheann sé an deis an domhan a scriosadh, le cúnamh Dé.
Translation
Putin in trouble?
A conversation on a political-debate programme, the exodus of thousands and protests across Russia suggest that public opinion is turning against the Russian President and his “special military operation”.
Seven months ago, the Kremlin and its supports were very pleased with themselves when they decided to attack Ukraine. Within a couple of hours, the Russian Airforce bombed military bases and important infrastructure all across Ukraine. The Russian Army stormed over the border in the north from Belarus, in the south from Crimea, which is under Russian occupation since 2014, and in the east from Russia itself. Within a couple of days, a large part of Ukraine was under Russian control and Kyiv, the capital city, was surrounded by the Russians. Many in the West worried that Ukraine would collapse. Political commentators on state-controlled television in Russia were very confident that victory would soon be theirs.
However, much has changed since then. The Russians failed to capture Kyiv. They retreated from the north. They haven’t made much progress in the east or the south either.
In fact, it seems that we have recently seen a turning point in the war, in favour of the Ukrainians.
On the 6th of September, the Ukrainian Army carried out a large attack on the Russian Army in the Kharkiv Oblast. This probably caught the Russians completely off guard, as the High-Command of the Ukrainian army had announced that they were preparing massive attacks in the south to recapture Kherson.
This attack in the Kharkiv Oblast was an absolute disaster for the Russians. Not even the Russian propagandists on state-controlled television could put a positive spin on the situation.
Take for example, a political programme broadcasted on NTV just before the last edition of University Times was printed. Many of the commentators were growing impatient with the war. But it is important to note, that not one of them blamed President Putin directly, instead blaming his military advisors.
“These people set us all up”, said Boris Nadeszdhin, former member of the Duma, the Parliament of Russia. He continued: “We cannot defeat the Ukrainians now. A strong army is fighting against the Russian Army … we have to mobilise the country or pull ourselves out of Ukraine”.
“What are we waiting for? … Did anyone believe six months ago that we would be where ware now? That we are having to leave Balakliya with the Ukrainians on our heels? Our military intelligence should have predicted this” said Viktor Olevich, policy expert.
Even the hawkish member of the Duma, Alexander Kazakov, had to admit that the loss in the Kharkiv Oblast was a “heavy physchological blow”, but he also said that the Russian Army should continue with the war.
Alexei Timofeev, political commentor, answered that the analysis of particular “experts” at the beginning of the war were “criminally incorrect”, and that there was no reason to listen to them. “We were told that the big hugs from the local people in Odesa would be the biggest threat that our soldiers would face. After the 24th of February, we all understood that that was not right at all. People in Odessa do not want to hug Russian soldiers … Why do I have to now listen to this opinion that we should keep going until the end?”
Despite this conversation, the end of the war is still far away. The Russian Army bombed the Ukrainians all along the front the week after. Moreover, on the 21st of September, Putin announced that we would be putting a partial mobilisation into effect, which will send 300,000 Russians to Ukraine. In the same speech, the President of Russia also warned that he was ready to use “everything” at the disposal of the Russian Army if needed, including nuclear weapons.
The west is taking this threat seriously. Last Thursday, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, said that the situation in Ukraine is more dangerous than anything since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, and that the world was in danger.
However, there are reports that many Russians are very unhappy with Putin’s partial mobilisation. Thousands are trying to flee Russia at the minute, queuing to get into Georgia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and many other countries. Flights leaving Russia are sold out too, while flights going to Russia are almost empty. People are protesting mobilisation too, not only in the big cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg, but in rural areas too, such as Dagestan.
Furthermore, there are reports that many of these new soldiers are suffering from low morale, due to poor living conditions as well as a lack of good-quality supplies and weaponry.
One can only hope that President Putin will lose whatever support the Russian people and Army have left for him before he gets the chance to destroy the world.
